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NOAA Increases Chance for Above-Normal Hurricane Season

August 10, 2019

NOAA has released an update for this hurricane season.


The update calls for an above-normal hurricane season.


NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended.


Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway.


Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May).
The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35%, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%.


The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA now expecting 10-17 named storms, of which 5-9 will become hurricanes, including 2-4 major hurricanes. This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. 


On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

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